The ultralow mortgage interest rates that fueled a revival of the housing market after the Great Recession are moving higher, posing a potential threat to the economic boom.

The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, a popular one held by millions of Americans, is now at 4.6 percent, only slightly below the five-year high of 4.66 percent set in May. It is significantly higher than the all-time low of 3.31 percent six years ago, according to data from Freddie Mac. Data from other analysts suggests that new homeowners could be facing even higher rates.

Even a modest rise in the mortgage rate can raise monthly payments, causing a broad rippling effect throughout the economy.

“Rising rates, combined with home price increases in most markets in the U.S., are causing more affordability issues, especially for first-time home buyers,” said Eric Schuppenhauer, president of home mortgage at Citizens Bank.

Mortgage rates began the year on the most sustained increase in the 40 years Freddie Mac has been tracking the data, rising in 15 of the first 21 weeks of 2018. Rates went from 4 percent to 4.66 percent before plateauing during the summer.

Increases in mortgage rates are both good and bad. They can eventually dampen housing prices, making more homes affordable to more people. For someone buying a home now, high rates reduce the cash they have available to spend on expenses such as dinners, trips, appliances and clothes.

“Last year, if you had a median (priced) existing home costing $250,000 and you put down 20 percent, you borrowed $200,000,” said Brett Ryan, an economist with Deutsche Bank. “At 4 percent, that payment was around $950 a month. Fast forward to today, and median existing home price is around $260,000 and the interest rate you are paying on the loan is 4.6 percent, which means that your monthly payment is roughly $1,060, a little over $100 a month more than last year.”

That eats up a good chunk of the $2,000 or so that the Republicans have said is the annual savings from last year’s tax cut for a typical family of four.

The strong economy can withstand the pressure, for now at least, some analysts said.

“We don’t believe, at these levels, it should really impact consumer spending,” said Craig Holke, an investment strategy analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “If rates continue to rise, at some point that could become a head wind.”

Record-low unemployment, government borrowing and trade rhetoric between the United States and China are largely responsible for the increase in mortgage rates.

“At some point each one of these could potentially cause a ripple that leads to some kind unexpected deterioration in the economy,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “All these factors . . . are risky.”

Experts are quick to point out that the market is not headed toward a repeat of the 2008 housing crash. For one thing, there are fewer real estate speculators. Lending standards have tightened to help ensure that people can afford the purchase.

Khater expects mortgage rates to continue to move higher, probably above 5 percent in 2019.

“We should see consistent or persistent forces pushing rates further up the rest of the year, probably not at the same pace as earlier this year,” he said.

The upswing in rates has not had much of an immediate effect on the housing market.

“My buyers are eager to get into a new home before the year is up due to unpredictable interest rates, but their goals are being thwarted due to the lack of housing supply,” said Gitika Kaul, a real estate agent at Wydler Brothers. “So while buyers are cognizant of the impact of rising rates on purchasing power, the larger looming issue continues to be the squeeze on supply in the marketplace.”

Derrick Swaak, a real estate agent at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty, also said supply is having more of an influence on the housing market than rates. But he warned that if rates continue to go up, they would have an impact.

“If they go north of 5 percent, then we’re going to start hearing that,” Swaak said, but the rising rates are not “making a measurable effect on people’s decisions.”

On the other hand, Ryan of Deutsche Bank said that the housing market is not as integral to the economy as it was in the early 2000s, before the financial crisis.

The homeownership rate has declined five percentage points from its peak in 2004, and home equity lending is roughly 40 percent lower than its peak in 2009.

Despite the swift climb, rates are still at relatively low levels. To anyone who bought a home back in the 1970s or ’80s, when mortgage rates were in double digits, hitting an all-time high of 18.63 percent in 1981, rates remain reasonable.

“They’re extremely low,” Khater said. “The monthly payment is still affordable. I think the obstacle for many buyers is not the monthly payment. The hurdle is a down payment. As prices continue to go up, that gets worse.”

Published by Kathy Orton, Washington Post

The skies of the U.S. economy are clear and sunny, but many analysts see storm clouds on the horizon.

By many measures, the economy is in its best shape since the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. Unemployment hit an 18-year low of 3.8% in May. Average wage growth is widely expected to reach 3% by the end of the year. And the economy is projected to grow nearly 3% in 2018 for just the second time since the downturn.

Yet the economic expansion is the second-longest in U.S. history, leading many economists to forecast a recession as early as next year. Half the economists surveyed last month by the National Association of Business Economics foresee a recession starting in late 2019 or in early 2020, and two-thirds are predicting a slump by the end of 2020.

Why?

Precisely because things seem to be going so well.

The late stage of an economic expansion is most vulnerable to a popping of the bubble. It’s typically when unemployment falls, inflation heats up, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool the economy down — often going too far — and investors and consumers pull back.

Paul Davidson, USA Today, June 11, 2018

Markets will be watching to see if interest rates continue to climb Wednesday, as the tax bill makes its way through Congress.

The stock market’s tax party took a breather Tuesday, just as Treasury yields snapped higher.

While not many traders were tying the two moves, the markets will be watching those yields again Wednesday, with concern that the volatile year-end streak higher is a sign of what could be ahead for 2018. The Dow slipped 37 points to 24,754, while the S&P 500 lost 8 points to 2,681.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 2.47 percent Tuesday. While it was at that same level in October, the move had an unexpected ferocity, gaining more than 11 basis points in two days in one of the biggest such moves this year. The 2-year note yield was also as high as 1.87 percent, before trading at 1.85 percent.

“It kind of started [Monday] out of nowhere,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at Lindsey Group. “I’ve been noticing upticks in inflation expectations.” He also said investors may be considering that the tax package, expected to be approved by both the Senate and House by Wednesday, could result in more economic growth but also a bigger deficit, two things that could drive yields higher.

Boockvar said the stock market could have been moving lower on a ‘sell the news’ reaction to the congressional votes on taxes. The House passed a bill, but because of a procedural glitch, the body will have to vote again Wednesday.

Bond strategists said Treasury yields were also responding to rising yields in Europe on Tuesday, after Germany expanded the amount of debt it will issue next year. That drove bund yields higher, and Treasury yields also rose, breaking some key technical levels in the process. Yields move inversely to price.

Treasury strategists say they expect to see volatile trading as investors make year end moves end in a very illiquid trading environment. But Boockvar said the market may be anticipating less easing by the world’s central bankers in the new year.

“That will be the thing to keep in mind all through 2018. Trump and tax reform dominated 2017. Central banks and their removal of accommodation will dominate 2018,” he said. Boockvar said the Fed in January begins to pare back another $10 billion of its bond purchases, bringing the total decline in purchases to $20 billion a month. He added that the European Central Bank is also cutting its $70 billion in monthly bond purchases in half.

“There’s $55 billion less liquidity from December to January,” he said. “I think it matters. There’s going to be $1 trillion less liquidity in 2018.” The Fed’s reduced purchases of what are mostly Treasurys is expected as the U.S. is expected to increase debt issuance.

Michael Schumacher, head of rate strategy at Wells Fargo, said trading could continue to be volatile into the year end, but he does not expect a sharp move higher in yields next year. His target for 10-year in 2018 is 2.95 percent.

“You’ve got two big changes on Jan. 1 and it’s a cumulative thing,” he said of the reduced central bank asset purchases. “I don’t think it’s a light switch kind of thing. This is the first year in a while the Fed has delivered on the dots. So it’s got the market nervous about the Fed coming through again next year. ”

The Fed forecasts three interest rate hikes for 2018, and it presents its forecast on a chart with anonymous ‘dots’ on a timeline to represent each individual official’s view.

“The Fed’s got three hikes for next year. The market’s got two. I think people have too comfortable a view about Jerome Powell’s stance on monetary policy. There’s a lot we don’t know about him yet. The idea that he’s a clone of Janet Yellen is too simplistic,” he said. Powell takes over from Yellen in February.

Bob Sinche, global strategist at Amherst Pierpont, points out that the Treasury market has made curious moves at this time of year in the past, like 2016 when the 10-year note contract reached its low of the year on Dec. 21.

Note contract reached its 2016 low on December 21, followed by an irregular rally over the following 9 months, so important moves in late December are not unprecedented.

“A break lower in price, if sustained through the week, would be interesting as the key PCE deflator report is out Friday. So while this could be a false break, significant fiscal stimulus, 3 plus percent real GDP growth, a market that appears to be underestimating Fed hikes next year and the increasing net supply as the Fed ramps up balance sheet reductions certainly appears to be a recipe for higher yields,” he wrote. The PCE deflator is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

The markets have been concerned about a “flattening” in the Treasury curve, where long end yields were moving closer to the short end, which was rising in anticipation of Fed rate hikes. Investors keep an eye on that trend since a flat curve can signal economic trouble ahead, and if it inverts, it would be taken as a recession warning. But that trend relaxed Tuesday as yields on the long end moved higher.

Brian Levitt, senior investment strategist at OppenheimerFunds, said he does not see a problem with the curve flattening for now, but it could be if the Federal Reserve tightens policy too much. That is his big worry for stocks, which he expects will have a positive 2018, but with a more normal 10 to 12 percent correction, after barely a sell off in 2017.

“All cycles are going to end with too tight a policy in one of the major economies of the world,” he said.

Levitt said he doesn’t believe the tax bill has been the big driver of stocks, which he says have been benefiting from synchronized global growth.

“I worried maybe the tax law becomes a little bit of a sugar rush to the economy, but not enough investment in productive assets to make it sustainable,” he said. He said he expects businesses to make some investment but much of their savings will go to dividends and buybacks.

“If you bring forward a little of the growth, the Fed could become more aggressive and paradoxically it could shorten the cycle,” he said.

Existing home sales data is expected at 10 a.m. ET Wednesday, after Tuesday’s new home sales rose more than expected. Earnings are also expected from General Mills, Blackberry, Winnebago, Bed Bath and Beyond and Herman Miller.

Patti Domm, CNBC